中国气温变化的两个基本模态的诊断和模拟研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

濮冰  闻新宇  王绍武  朱锦红 《地球科学进展》2007,22(5):456-467

我国地域辽阔，气候复杂多变，在全球变暖的背景下研究中国近百年来的气温变化具有重要的意义。为此我们重建了中国东部71个站1880—2004年四季气温距平序列。通过EOF分析发现了中国气温变化的2种最基本的模态：东部一致变化和关内关外相反变化。这2种模态不随季节变化，而且在不同时期也是稳定的。通过研究这2种模态与变暖趋势的关系发现，20世纪80年代以来的变暖主要是由于第一模态在该时期持续的正位相增强造成的；而20世纪20~40年代的变暖主要是由于第二模态所呈现的正位相所造成的。此外，我们检验了这2种模态在大气环流模式（CAM）中的表现。结果表明：121年（模式中1880—2000年）的集合模拟在一定程度上可以重现第一模态的变化，而第二模态则仅在冬季表现明显。最后，以冬季为例，利用1880—2004年重建及观测的500 hPa高度场资料，通过合成分析进一步研究了这2种模态的环流机制：第一模态正位相对应纬向环流增强，表现在地面气温分布上为东部一致变暖。而负位相则对应东亚大槽加深，东部地区一致变冷。第二模态正位相对应的环流分布则为从东亚北部到阿留申为负距平，东亚到北太平洋中纬度为正距平；对应地面气温分布为关内变暖关外变冷。负位相时环流分布基本相反。这样的环流机制得到了模式研究的支持。  相似文献   

Time–frequency representation of earthquake accelerograms and inelastic structural response records using the adaptive chirplet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition     

P.D. Spanos  A. Giaralis  N.P. Politis 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2007,27(7):675-689

In this paper, the adaptive chirplet decomposition combined with the Wigner-Ville transform and the empirical mode decomposition combined with the Hilbert transform are employed to process various non-stationary signals (strong ground motions and structural responses). The efficacy of these two adaptive techniques for capturing the temporal evolution of the frequency content of specific seismic signals is assessed. In this respect, two near-field and two far-field seismic accelerograms are analyzed. Further, a similar analysis is performed for records pertaining to the response of a 20-story steel frame benchmark building excited by one of the four accelerograms scaled by appropriate factors to simulate undamaged and severely damaged conditions for the structure. It is shown that the derived joint time–frequency representations of the response time histories capture quite effectively the influence of non-linearity on the variation of the effective natural frequencies of a structural system during the evolution of a seismic event; in this context, tracing the mean instantaneous frequency of records of critical structural responses is adopted.The study suggests, overall, that the aforementioned techniques are quite viable tools for detecting and monitoring damage to constructed facilities exposed to seismic excitations.  相似文献   

Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes from empirical Green's functions modeling     

Adrien Oth  Friedemann Wenzel  Mircea Radulian 《Tectonophysics》2007,438(1-4):33-56

Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (M_W = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (M_W = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (M_W = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ M_W ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.  相似文献   

安徽和县香泉独立铊矿床铊的赋存状态研究     

范裕周涛发  袁峰吴明安  张千明侯明金　胡清华 《岩石学报》2007,23(10):2530-2540

分散元素铊成矿作用的相关研究近年来已经取得了重要进展,但矿床中铊的赋存状态研究仍有待深入.香泉独立铊矿床位于长江中下游成矿带北侧的皖东地区,该矿床中铊的赋存状态研究对拓展铊元素成矿研究具有重要意义.本文通过矿相学、微量元素地球化学、电子探针分析和X射线粉晶分析等方法,确定了香泉铊矿床中黄铁矿是铊的主要载体矿物.铊在黄铁矿中主要以类质同象形式替代铁进入黄铁矿晶格,其次以纳米级、次纳米级铊矿物颗粒形式产出.  相似文献   

形变观测预报地震模式的探讨     

王秀文  宋美琴  李媛媛  程紫燕  张瑞芳 《山西地震》2007,(3):1-6

总结了用形变观测项目进行地震分析预报的经验和方法,对观测曲线的形态及异常显示、断层活动性质、地震异常识别、异常与震中的关系、异常与震级的关系、断层位移与地应力变化、预报指标进行了研究,以对今后的地震预报工作提供一定的参考。  相似文献   

InSAR相位分解及其在生成DEM和研究地震形变场中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

罗小军  黄丁发  刘国祥 《地震工程学报》2006,28(3):204-209,190

InSAR是极具发展潜力的微波遥感新技术,可应用于数字高程模型的产生、制图和大范围微小地表形变的测量。考虑参考面、地形和地表形变等因素,本文从几何角度分析和讨论了In-SAR的相位分解,并给出了各相位分量的函数表达式,阐述了地表高程和形变信息提取的基本原理。最后以JERS和ENVISAT卫星数据为例,展示了合成孔径雷达干涉测量在生成数字高程模型和提取地震形变场中的应用及其数据处理过程。  相似文献   

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Katja Woth  Ralf Weisse  Hans von Storch 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(1):3-15

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.  相似文献   

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK     

Marcos E. C. Bernardes  Mark A. Davidson  Keith R. Dyer  Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.  相似文献   

Modelling net erosion responses to enviroclimatic changes recorded upon multisecular timescales     

Nazzareno Diodato   《Geomorphology》2006,80(3-4):164-177

Land use change has been recognized throughout the Earth as one of the most important factors influencing the occurrence of rainfall-driven geomorphological processes. However, relating the occurrence of historical soil erosion rates is difficult because of the lack of long-term research projects in river basins. Also, complex models are not adequate to reconstruct erosion rate changes because they require significant input data not always available on long timescales. Given the problems with assessing sediment yield using complex erosion models, the objective of this study is to explore a parsimonious scale-adapted erosion model (ADT) from the original Thornes and Douglas algorithms, which aims at reconstruction of annual net erosion (ANE) upon multisecular timescales. As a test site, the Calore River basin (3015 km² in southern Italy) provides a peculiar and unique opportunity for modelling erosion responses to climate and land cover changes, where input-data generation and interpretation results were also supported by documented hydrogeomorphological events that occurred before and after land deforestation. In this way, ANE_ADT-values were reconstructed for the period 1675–2004 by using precipitation indexes, complemented by recent instrumental records, and by using land cover statistics from documented agrarian sources. Pulses of natural sedimentation in the predeforestation period have been related to Vesuvius volcanic activity and changes in rainstorm frequency. After deforestation, the basin system became unstable with sudden fluctuations in the hydrogeomorphological regime contributing significantly to increased erosion and, in turn, sediment transport sequences via river drainage towards the Tyrrhenian coast.  相似文献   

某隔震结构动力特性的理论分析与脉动测试   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

贾洪  徐茂义  闫维明  李振宝 《震灾防御技术》2007,2(4):384-390

本文针对国内最大单体隔震建筑建立了SAP2000三维分析模型,并进行了动力特性的理论分析;现场对实际建筑进行了平移振动、扭转振动、垂直振动和平面内弯曲4个方面的脉动测试。利用工程振动反演理论分析了该结构的固有频率、振型、阻尼等动力特性,将实测结构动力特性与理论分析结果进行比较,详细分析实测结果与理论结果差别的原因,并据此对理论模型进行修正,为今后类似结构的设计积累了资料。  相似文献